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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE-dated OIS stabilises in recent trade, showing around ~9bp of tightening for the Bank’s November meeting, while terminal policy rate pricing shows ~17.5bp above prevailing levels.
- Contracts are 1-5bp softer on the day, with the strip flattening.
- The recent soft run of data, most recently evidenced in this morning’s worrying flash services PMI survey, coupled with the Bank’s choice to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday, ;eaves participants questioning if the Bank will deploy any further rate hikes in the current cycle.
- One further hike is roughly ~70% priced at present.
- A quick reminder that plenty of sell-side names now see the BoE as done with hikes, expect a full round up of those views in our BoE review document.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Nov-23 | 5.277 | +9.2 |
| Dec-23 | 5.335 | +15.0 |
| Feb-24 | 5.361 | +17.6 |
| Mar-24 | 5.359 | +17.4 |
| May-24 | 5.325 | +14.1 |
| Jun-24 | 5.267 | +8.2 |
| Aug-24 | 5.176 | -0.9 |
| Aug-24 | 5.068 | -11.7 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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