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Markets Hedge Against Further EUR Gains Post-ECB

EUR
  • Currency options markets have shifted notably in the wake of the ECB press conference, with front-end risk reversals contracts edging higher as markets seek out protection against near-term EUR strength.
  • The 6-month EUR/USD risk reversal now trades at the best levels since early October last year, capturing the next four ECB rate decisions and next two rounds of formal ECB forecasts (first in March, then in June).
  • Demand for EUR upside protection mirrors a market bringing forward rate hike expectations, with STIRs now pricing a 10bps hike by July, 25bps by October and 36bps by year-end.

Figure 1: EUR/USD 6m Risk Reversal at highest in four months, despite hawkish Fed

Source: Bloomberg

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