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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CROSS ASSET
- Headed into Friday's payrolls release, markets expect a further improvement in job gains to 720k from 559k in May. The Whisper number is at a more bullish 800k, which would mark the highest since August last year.
- In rates space, speculators continue to trim their short position in the very long end, with the overall net short for Long Bond futures shrinking from October 2020's low of 260k net short to this month's short of just 60k.
- This leaves markets with a flattening bias: short of the front-end (2 - 5yr), neutral of the belly, while maintaining a bias to close shorts in the very long (Long bonds and ultras) end of the Treasury curve.
- For currencies, a volume-weighted USD 3m Risk Reversal (below) retains a very modest USD upside bias, but is well off the best levels of 2021, which may indicate USD positioning is softer than it had been at the beginning of the year.
- Interest has been building in topside USD strikes, most notably at Y111.75 in USD/JPY, at which over $2bln in call options are due to expire at the post-NFP NY cut. This would narrow the gap with key resistance at the 112.23 Feb 20, 2020 high.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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