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Markets Roundup: Bonds Extending Lows

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures remain weaker but off lows after extending new cycle lows in late morning trade. Sep'23 10Y futures slipped below round number technical support of 109-00 (-20.5) to new contract low of 108-31 briefly, yield climbing to the highest level since late 2007 at 4.3518%.
  • There were no obvious headline, data or Block/cross driver for the curve steepening sell-off (3M10Y +8.273 at -110.785, 2Y10Y +3.629 at -65.590).
  • ncoming high-grade supply and pre-auction hedging was only a factor in the short end to 3s. Some desks posited that Fed Chairman Powell will present a hawkish or "stay the course" to address inflation at the KC Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, WY that kicks off Thursday evening and runs through Saturday.
  • Technicals in play: The trend direction in Treasuries remains down and the contract has started the week on a bearish note, breaking to a fresh cycle low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • Last week’s break of support at 109.24, the Aug 4 low, also confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. The focus is on 108.19+, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 110-21+, the 20-day EMA.
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