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Markets Roundup: Tsys Back Near Early Highs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have see-sawed back near to higher opening levels following a well received $67B 5Y note sale (4.235% vs. 4.242% WI). Jun'24 10Y futures currently trade +4 at 110-20.5 vs. 110-16 pre-auction, compares to midmorning low of 110-11.5.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures briefly marked session high of 110-23.5 this morning but quickly reversed course to extend session lows (TYM4 110-11.5) after the mixed initial data:
  • Durable Goods Orders (1.4% vs. 1.0% est, prior down revised to -6.9% from -6.2%), Durables Ex Transportation (0.5% vs. 0.4% est); Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.7% vs. 0.1% est, prior down revised to -0.4% from 0.0%), Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (-0.4% vs. 0.1% est).
  • Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity missed estimate (-18.3 vs. -8.8 prior) - the lowest print since April 2023 and included fairly weak details: new orders remained negative, sales/revenues fell to a near-zero reading, full-time employment growth was "less widespread", and the price indexes "continued to indicate overall increases in prices".
  • Consumer Confidence index dipped from 104.8 to 104.7, defying expectations of a rise to 107.0 (prior was revised down from 106.7). Present Situation rose from 147.6 (rev. from 147.2) to 151.0, with Expectations slipping from 76.3 (rev. from 79.8) to 73.8.
  • Meanwhile, The S&P CoreLogic index posted 6.03% Y/Y growth, below the 6.12% expected but up from 5.57% prior; the 20-City index was in line at 6.59% vs 6.60% prior and 6.15% prior.
  • Wednesday Data Calendar: Wholesale Sale/Inventories, Tsy $43B 7Y Note Auction while Fed Gov Waller will discuss economic outlook at Economic Club NY at 1800ET (text, Q&A).
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