MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 10

MNI BRIEF: China To Investigate EU Trade Actions

MNI BRIEF: China June CPI Hits Three Month Low

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1342 Weds; -0.53% Y/Y

IP Stronger Than Expected In May, But 3m/3m Trend Still Bleak

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -3.44M TO 445.1M JUL 05 WK

MNI:US MAY WHOLESALE INV 0.6%; SALES 0.4%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Markets Roundup: Tsys Extend Gains

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys firmer, volumes improve with European markets return from Boxing Day holiday. Futures inside relatively narrow overnight range, near overnight highs: March'24 10Y (TYH4) currently +1.5 at 112-24.5 vs. 112-26 overnight high, volume at just over 118k. Curves bull steepening: 2Y10Y +4.763 at -41.615.
  • Initial technical resistance above at 113-04.5 (Dec 21 high), followed by 113-12+, a Fibonacci projection point (1.764 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing). Key short-term support is at 109-31+, the Dec 11 low. Initial support is at 111-31+/111-14 (Low Dec 14 / 20-day EMA).
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 holding steady to mildly softer vs. Friday with short end futures weaker: January 2024 cumulative -3.5bp at 5.293%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -80.5% vs. -90.1% late Friday w/ cumulative of -23.6bp at 5.091%, May 2024 pricing in a full 25bp cut with cumulative -50.1bp at 4.827%, June'24 cumulative -76.8bp at 4.559%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Jan'24.
  • Wednesday Data Calendar: Richmond Fed Mfg Index/Business Conditions scheduled release at 1000ET followed by Dallas Fed Services Activity at 1030ET. Another busy day for US Treasury supply with $56B 17W Bill and $70B 42D CMB Bill auctions at 1130ET, followed by $26B 2Y FRN Note and $58B 5Y Note auctions at 1300ET.
  • No scheduled Fed speakers; Congress closed for the holidays.
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