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Markets Roundup: Tsys Extend Highs, $/Yen Recedes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures quietly extending gains in early afternoon trade, curves steeper but off highs as intermediates pick up the pace, trading desks reporting prop and fast$ buying/short covering over the last 45 minutes.
  • Delayed bid in rates and equities after in-line weekly jobless claims data spurred buying/short covering ahead of Friday's headline employment data. Initial Jobless Claims comes out in-line with expectations: 220k vs. 220k est, 219k prior revised from 218k), Continuing Claims lower than expected: 1.861M vs. 1.910M est, 1.925M prior/revised.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently trading 111-07 last, +2.5 -- just shy of technical resistance at 111-09.5, intraday high. Initial support well below at 109-16.5 20-day EMA. Curves steeper but off highs (3M10Y +2.133 at -128.917; 2Y10Y +1.625 at -47.473).
  • Desks looking for FX tie-in after Japanese Yen extended rally overnight amid hawkish rate hike expectations from the BOJ on December 18. No obvious headline as Yen reverses support, $/Yen below 142.0 briefly vs. 147.30 overnight high.
  • Focus remains on tomorrow's employment data for November after this week's lower than expected JOLTS and ADP data rekindled early 2024 rate cut projections. Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 186k in November, up from the 150k in October owing to a 38k fewer striking workers meaning strike adjusted gains should trend lower.
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