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Markets Roundup: Tsys Quiet Recovery Ahead Dec Minutes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have quietly moved off session lows over the last couple hours, trading mildly higher for the most part, curves reverse course are now flatter with the short end underperforming (2Y10Y -1.656 at -41.141 vs. -36.236 earlier). Mar'24 10Y futures currently +3 at 112-12.5 vs. 112-12 overnight high, decent volumes (TYH4>1.29M).
  • Focus turns to the December FOMC minutes release at 1400ET. Limited post-December FOMC participant commentary has pointed to an attempt to clarify Chair Powell’s seemingly dovish press conference remarks and tone on future rate cuts.
  • Given what we’ve heard from multiple FOMC participants since the meeting, it’s likely the rate cut discussion will be portrayed as terse and conducted in conjunction with the new economic projections – in other words, conditional and data-dependent. And the prospect of cuts would probably be portrayed as an attempt to keep policy from getting too restrictive in real terms as inflation falls.
  • Tsy futures had see-sawed off lows after lower than expected JOLTS job opening (8.79M vs. 8.821M est, prior up-revised to 8.852M from 8.733M) and drop in ISM prices paid: 45.2 vs. 49.5 est; ISM Manufacturing (47.4 vs. 47.1 est); ISM Employment (48.1 vs. 46.5 est); ISM New Orders (47.1 vs. 49.1 est).

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