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Markets Roundup: Yields Gaining, Post BOC, Bill Supply Guidance

US TSYS
  • Treasury yields have climbed to the highest levels since just prior to the debt ceiling passing Congress. Currently marking the highest level for June so far, 10Y yield is up to 3.7991% high in the aftermath of the Bank of Canada's surprise decision to hike 25bp to 4.75%, while signaling it’s prepared to go further with a strong economy threatening to leave inflation stuck well above its 2% target.
  • A second, and well telegraphed factor weighing on the short end after the Tsy provided "additional guidance on bill issuance and cash balance" following the suspension of the debt limit through Jan 1 2025: plans to increase issuance of bills "to continue financing the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with Treasury’s cash balance policy." Other highlights of the release:
  • The knock-on effect has seen projected rate hike gain momentum in July or Sep (21.9bp and 19.1bp cumulative respectively) while chances of a June hike remains subdued around 20%.
  • Broad based selling has gained in the long end, however, as Treasury curves climb off deeper inverted levels: 2s10s currently +4.755 a t -77.512 vs. -86.218 low from this morning.
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