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Markets Roundup, Yields Grind Higher Ahead Tue's Debt Limit Confab

US TSYS
Treasury futures held weaker levels for much of the session, curves steeper (2s10s +3.042 at -50.058) in late trade with bonds underperforming. Treasury notes in 2s to 10s have held to a narrow range after briefly extending highs after this morning's weaker than expected Empire Mfg index (-31.8 (cons -4.0) in May from +10.8). Support quickly reversed after the "noisy" metric.
  • A surge in swappable corporate issuance kept the pressure on rates for much of the session, over a dozen companies issued near $18B debt Monday, more to follow as the latest quarterly earning cycle winds down.
  • Stocks had ignored this morning's weaker data, fixated on generally hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed Bostic (nonvoter) on sticky inflation not coming down fast enough, potential for recession (though not base case), does not expect to see rate cut until "well into 2024".
  • Debt limit chatter: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has appeared to counter positive assessments from President Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and NEC Director Lael Brainard on preliminary debt-limit talks ahead of a key White House meeting between Biden and the four leaders of Congress tomorrow.
  • Punchbowl reports: "The president is scheduled to leave Wednesday for the G7 meeting in Japan. Biden will want to see significant progress in the talks before his departure in order to insulate himself from any criticism over flying to Asia with a debt-limit breach looming."
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