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MNI BOE Preview - Dec 2021: Risk Management to Favour Waiting

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • This week’s Bank of England MPC meeting would have probably been a straightforward decision had it not been for the emergence of the Omicron variant.
  • Since the November meeting, labour market data has come in even stronger than expected, with end-of-furlough tensions and wage growth elevated even now that base effects have largely evened themselves out.
  • Uncertainty seems more elevated now than in November when the MPC kept rates on hold (now driven by Omicron rather than the end of furlough). At this stage a lockdown or other harder governmental restrictions cannot be ruled out, and waiting seven weeks for the first hike is unlikely to make much difference to the inflationary outcome in 2-years time.
  • We also include summaries of 21 sell-side analyst notes.
Full document:

MNI BoE Preview - Dec21.pdf

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