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MNI BOE Preview - November 2022: 4-way split with 50bp hike

  • The MNI Markets team (along with 20/22 analyst previews we have read) expects a 50bp hike at this week’s MPC meeting. Assuming the 50bp hike is delivered, the breakdown of the vote and the forward guidance will arguably be the biggest drivers of markets moves.
  • We expect a 4-way split in the vote with Tenreyro voting for rates on hold, Dhingra for a 25bp hike, Mann and Haskel a 75bp hike and the other 5 members of the MPC voting for 50bp.
  • We expect the MPC's guidance of further "forceful, if necessary" hikes to be maintained and discuss options on how they could change their guidance around the markets' peak.
  • For the full document including summaries of over 20 sell side view see:

MNI BoE Preview - Dec22.pdf

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