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MNI Riksbank Preview - April 2022: All down to Ingves (again)

  • This week’s Riksbank meeting will be incredibly interesting as so much has changed since the last meeting which was now 11 weeks ago.
  • Markets are pricing in around an 80% probability of a hike at this week’s meeting, but most sellside analysts look for an on hold decision this week with a smaller probability of a hike.
  • We put the probability of a hike at around 45% and favour a clear signaling of a June hike. We expect at least two of Breamn, Floden and Ohlsson to vote for a hike at this meeting, which would leave the decision over whether to hike up to Governor Ingves (who breaks a 3-3 all tie break and with Skingsley and Jansson unlikely to endorse a hike now).
  • On QE reinvestments, we expect the hawks' February plan to be endorsed for Q3 but don't rule out full reinvestments in line with Q2, given the recent fixed income volatility, with Ingves again having the casting vote and preferring the repo rate to the balance sheet for signalling policy.
  • We discuss the market implications and summarise the views of 13 sell side analysts in the full MNI Riksbank Preview.
Full document:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2022-04.pdf


Riksbank - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Riksbank - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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