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MNI Riksbank Preview - April 2023: Terminal rate forecast key

  • All of the analyst previews ahead of this week’s Riksbank meeting expect a 50bp hike. The speeches of Board members since the February meeting have all pointed to a 25bp or 50bp rate hike but the stickiness of core CPIF has led to an almost unanimous expectation of 50bp.
  • The main question therefore is what does the rate path look like? Analysts think that it will show at least 25bp for the June meeting, with some expecting a terminal rate close to 4% in the path. This will be the main foreseeable determinant of the market reaction in our view.
  • A terminal rate of around 3.83% should be broadly in line with consensus – anything higher than this would probably see SEK strengthen and anything lower see depreciation. The rate path is expected to remain constant after reaching its terminal rate rather than show any risk of rate cuts. If there are cuts in the forecast this would probably be taken dovishly by the market.
  • With QT only beginning earlier this month there are no expectations for any changes to the bond sales programmes at this meeting.
See the full document for summaries of more than 15 sellside previews.

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2023-04.pdf

Riksbank - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Riksbank - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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