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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 1 April, 2024

  • Germany, Spain, France and Finland are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E33.8bln, around double the E16.8bln of this week. In addition, we expect to receive a funding update from Ireland.
  • We see Greece, Finland and Portugal as the most likely to hold syndications in the week. It may take a little longer past the Easter holidays for the Q2 syndication programmes to get up to speed, but given the negative cash flows seen this week, we could see some early transactions.
  • The week ahead sees redemptions of E28.7bln with the majority (E23.5bln) from a Bobl. There is also E3.2bln of a formerly 10-year EU-bond and E1.8bln of a formerly 5-year GGB.
  • Coupon payments will be E2.3bln (of which E1.2bln are Italian and E0.7bln EU-bonds).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E2.7bln, versus this week’s negative E21.2bln.
For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240401.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • Germany will kick off Q2 issuance on Tuesday with E4.5bln of the 2.50% Mar-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22049) on offer.
  • Germany will then return to the market on Wednesday, looking to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to hold a Bono/Olbi/ObliEi auction. On offer will be the on-the-run 5-year 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51), the on-the-run 10-year 3.25% Apr-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M85) and the on-the-run 15-year 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60). Alongside these the 2.05% Nov-39 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012M69) will be sold. The auction size is likely to be confirmed on Monday 1 April.
  • Also on Thursday, France will look to hold a LT OATs auction. As in February and March we look for an auction size of E11.5-13.0bln. Details of what will be sold will be announced tomorrow. We look for the 10-year 3.50% Nov-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400L834) to be on offer alongside the 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2) and a first auction of the 30-year 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4).
  • Finland will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with up to E0.4bln available through the ORI Facility.
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