MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 15 July, 2024

• The EU, Germany, Greece, Spain and France all look to hold auctions in the week ahead.
• We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E30.2bln, up from E27.0bln this week.
• The week ahead sees two large redemptions totalling E29.2bln: E11.8bln from a formerly 5-year Austrian RAGB and E17.4bln of a formerly 10-year Dutch DSL.
• Coupon payments for the week are E3.5bln, of which E1.4bln are Dutch, E0.9bln are Italian, E0.7bln are Austrian, E0.2bln are Greek and E0.2bln are from the EFSF.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E2.5bln versus positive E25.1bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240715.pdf

Supply Next Week

• On Monday, the EU will kick off issuance for the week by selling up to E3bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) and up to E2bln of the off-the-run short 15-year 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D74).
• On Tuesday, Germany will sell E4bln of the new 5-year Oct-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25034). The coupon will be announced the preceding day.
• On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will likely be announced the preceding day.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of each the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) and the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
• Spain will look to hold a Bono/Olbi auction on Thursday. On offer will be the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34), the on-the-run 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35) and the 0.85% Jul-37 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012I24). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday but we think we will probably see a return to E4.5-5.5bln auction target ranges (after the previous E5-6bln range earlier this month when the new 7-year Obli was launched).
• France on Thursday 18 July will then look to hold an MT OAT auction with E9.5-11.5bln on offer – larger than seen last month in the midst of the election campaign, but smaller than the E12.0-12.5bln upper limits seen through the rest of 2024. On offer will be both on-the-run issues: the 3-year 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6) and the 5-year 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) alongside the off-the-run 1.00% May-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0013250560) and the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3).
• France will then return later in the day to hold an IL OAT auction with E1.75-2.5bln on offer of the following: the 0.10% Mar-28 OATi (ISIN: FR0013238268), the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).