MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 17 June, 2024

• Slovakia, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, and France all look to hold auctions in the week ahead.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E28.1bln, up from E24.7bln this week.
• The upcoming week sees a single redemption of E1.6bln from a formerly 4-year SlovGB.
• Coupon payments for the week are E2.6bln, of which E1.0bln are Italian, E0.8bln are Greek and E0.4bln are Portuguese.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E23.9bln, up from E3.9bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240617.pdf

Supply Next Week

• Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with a SlovGB auction. On offer are the 3.00% Feb-26 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024675), the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), and the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539).
• Belgium will also look hold a conventional auction on Monday to sell E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 5/10-year OLOs. On offer will the 2.70% Oct-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000362716) and the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694).
• Germany, on Tuesday, will look to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026).
• Greece, on Wednesday will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will likely be announced the preceding day.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E2bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004), up from a previously announced E1bln. This increased size is instead of opening another 30-year Bund alongside the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund. We think that this is the first time that DFA has decided to only issue one Bund (when having two pencilled in at the quarterly update). The reason the DFA gave was that this was due to feedback from market participants.
• Spain, on Thursday will hold a Bono/Obli auction and we expect a likely E5-6bln target range (to be announced Monday). As we expected both the 5-year on-the-run 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51) and the recently launched 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35) will be on offer. Alongside these, the off-the-run 8-year 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20) will be on offer.
• France, also on Thursday will then look to hold an MT OAT auction for E8.0-10.5bln. On offer will be the 2.75% Oct-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0011317783), the 5.50% Apr-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0000571218), the on-the-run 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) and the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00). We were surprised that the on-the-run 2.50% Sep-27 OAT will not be on offer and assume that this is due to market demand for the 2.75% Oct-27 gilt.
• France will then return later in the day to hold an IL OAT auction with E1.50-2.25bln on offer. On offer will be the 1.85% Jul-27 OATei (ISIN: FR0011008705), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).