MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 2 September

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• Austria, Germany, Spain, France and Belgium will look to hold auctions in the upcoming week, while the ESM will hold a syndication.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E28.5bln, down from E31.2bln this week.
• The upcoming week sees one notable redemption: E16.6bln of a formerly 10-year BTP.
• Coupon payments for the week total E8.9bln, of which E8.4bln are Italian and E0.2bln are from the EFSF.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E3.0bln, down from positive E31.0bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240902.pdf

Supply Next Week

• The ESM has sent an RfP for an upcoming transaction. We expect a EUR-denominated syndication to be held either Tuesday or Wednesday with E2.0bln WNG sold (and a small outside change of a larger – potentially up to the remaining E4.0bln funding need for the remainder of the year), and look for either a 2-year, 5-year or possibly 10-year maturity.
• On Tuesday, Austria will kick off issuance for the week by holding a RAGB auction, on offer will be a combined E1.4375bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) and the 1.50% Nov-86 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A1PEF7).
• Also on Tuesday, Germany will sell E4.5bln of the 2.70% Sep-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22064).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the on-the-run 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction. On offer are both the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77) and the 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35), as expected, alongside the 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51). The 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) will also be on offer. The auction size will be announced on Monday, we look for an upper auction size of E6.0-6.5bln.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold an LT OAT auction for E10-12bln. The on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Nov-34 OAT (ISIN: FR001400QMF9) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4) are on offer, as we expected, alongside the 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044) and the 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806).
• Finally on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI auction, likely for up to E500mln. Details will be announced the preceding day.