MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 19

• The EU, Slovakia, Germany, Finland and Italy are the only countries scheduled to hold institutional issuance operations in the week ahead, with subscriptions for Belgium’s retail state bonds due to begin.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance (ex-retail) for the week at E24.7bln, down from an estimated E37.8bln this week.
• The week ahead sees E4.6bln of redemptions: E4.0bln from a formerly 10-year EFSF bond and USD0.7bln from a Slovenian USD bond.
• Coupons for the week sum to E1.5bln including E0.9bln Austrian.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E18.5bln, compared to negative E8.4bln this week.

EZ240219.pdf

Supply Next Week

• The EU will hold a syndication in the week ahead. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding which bonds will be on offer.
• Slovakia is due to come to the market to hold a 3/9/10/25-year SlovGB auction on Monday. On offer will be the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
• On Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
• Also on Tuesday, Finland will come to the market to hold an auction for up to E750mln each of the on-the-run 5/10-year RFGBs: the 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525) and the 3.00% Sep-33 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000550249).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023).
• On Friday, Italy will come to the market to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We expect to see the launch of the new BTP Short Term maturing 28 January 2026 but don’t have a strong conviction on which BTPeis will be on offer. However, if we don’t see the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) reopened, we would look for a new long 10-year BTPei to be launched via syndication, potentially as early as the first quarter of the year. There is also a chance that a new 10-year BTPei could potentially be launched via auction. Details will be announced on Tuesday.
• Note that subscriptions for the next retail-only Belgium State Bonds (Bons d’Etat) will open on Thursday 22 February. Belgium plans to launch a new 1-year issue (ISIN: BE3871294240) and a new 3-year issue (ISIN: BE3871295254). The subscription window is planned to be open until Friday 1 March but there is a possibility of an early close. The BDA has announced that there will be a combined limit of E6.0bln across the two issues.