February 03, 2023 15:53 GMT
MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 6
The Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Portugal are due to hold auctions next week but we also see potential syndications from Belgium, France, Italy and Spain.
- The Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Portugal are the only countries with auctions in the calendar for next week.
- However, we expect a pickup in syndications next week with potential transactions from Belgium, France, Italy and Spain.
- If we were to see all of these deals we could see gross issuance as high as E34.4bln, with scheduled auctions making up E13.4bln. Either way, we would look for gross nominal issuance of less than this week’s E43.8bln.
- The upcoming week sees two redemptions totalling E3.1bln with the majority (E3.0bln) from a formerly 3-year ESM-bond. Coupons total just E0.1bln.
- With potential gross nominal issuance of up to E34.4bln next week, we look for net flows of positive E31.2bln in the week ahead, up from this week’s positive E8.0bln.
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Week Ahead Supply
- On Tuesday, the Netherlands will launch its new 10-year 2.50% Jul-33 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001AM2) via DDA for E4-6bln. We expect strong demand with the top of the target range achieved.
- Also Tuesday, Austria will hold a larger-than-usual auction of E1.725bln. On offer will be the 10-year 2.90% Feb-33 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A324S8) that was launched via syndication last month as well as the 0% Oct-40 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2KQ43).
- Finally on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell linkers: E500mln of the 0.10% Apr-26 ILB (ISIN: DE0001030567) and E200mln of the 0.10% Apr-46 ILB (ISIN: DE0001030575) will be on offer.
- On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market with E4bln of the 7-year 2.10% Nov-29 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102622) on offer.
- Portugal will draw auction issuance to an end on Wednesday with E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.65% Jul-32 OT (ISIN: PTOTEYOE0031) on offer.
- In terms of syndications we think there is potential for a Belgian 20/30-year OLO, a 30-year French OAT, Italy (potentially CCTeu or BTPei) as well as a Spanish longer-dated Obli (possibly 15-year).
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