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(M2) Correction Extends


Late Session Rebound


(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

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  • The EU, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany are all due to hold auctions next week. We look for E20.1bln of gross nominal issuance, down from E39.9bln this week.
  • The only potential syndication we look for would be a French 30-year OATei (or ESM).
  • The week ahead sees redemptions and coupons sum to just E0.5bln. With estimated gross nominal issuance of E20.1bln, that leaves net flows for the week at positive E19.6bln (up from positive E15.4bln this week).
Full document:


Week Ahead Supply:

  • The EU will kick off issuance on Monday by holding an auction of up to E2.5bln of the 0.40% Feb-37 Green bond.
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1-2bln of the 30-year 0% Jan-52 DSL.
  • On WednesdayItaly will look to sell a BTP Short Term. We are not sure whether this will be the new Nov-23 BTP Short Term or a reopening of the 0% Jan-24 BTP Short Term. A BTPei will also be issued, with the most likely candidates the the 0.40% May-30 BTPei or the 0.15% May-51 BTPei. Details will be announced later this evening.
  • Also Wednesday, Germany will look to reopen its 10-year Bund for E4bln.
  • Italy will return to the market Friday. We look for a reopening of the 5-year 0% Aug-26 BTP, the 10-year 0.95% Jun-32 BTP and either the Apr-29 CCTeu (or a new CCTeu).
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |

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