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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C May 16

The ESM, Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E29.4bln, little changed from the E29.2bln sold this week.

  • The ESM, Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E29.4bln, little changed from the E29.2bln sold this week.
  • There will be E11.9bln of redemptions this week (E11.5bln of which are Italian BTPei with an original maturity of six years) and coupon payments of E3.3bln (of which E1.7bln are Italian and E0.9bln Dutch).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E14.3bln (down from positive E29.1bln this week).
Full document:

EZ220516.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • The ESM is likely to hold a syndication after issuing an RFP earlier this week. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity.
  • Auctions for the week will kick off on Monday with Slovakia looking to sell 3/10/15/25-year SlovGBs. On offer will be E100mln of the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), E138.7mln of the 1.00% May-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017166), E100mln of the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) and E100mln of the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • On Tuesday, Germany will come to the market to sell E6bln of the new Jun-24 Schatz (ISIN: DE0001104883).
  • Also Tuesday, Finland will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 20-year 0.50% Apr-43 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000517677).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E1.5bln of the 30-year 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572).
  • Spain will come to the market on Thursday to sell E5-6bln of Bonos, Oblis and Green Oblis. On offer will be the 0% May-25 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012K38), the 0.80% Jul-27 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G26), the 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20) and the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli (ISIN: ES0000012J07).
  • France will then look to sell E10.0-11.5bln of the MT OATs (including the launch of the new long 5-year OAT): the 0% Feb-25 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007TY9), the 0% Feb-26 OAT (ISIN: FR0013508470) and the new 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: TBA).
  • France will return later Thursday to sell E1.0-1.5bln of IL OATs. On offer will be the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38), the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
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  • The ESM, Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E29.4bln, little changed from the E29.2bln sold this week.
  • There will be E11.9bln of redemptions this week (E11.5bln of which are Italian BTPei with an original maturity of six years) and coupon payments of E3.3bln (of which E1.7bln are Italian and E0.9bln Dutch).
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E14.3bln (down from positive E29.1bln this week).
Full document:

EZ220516.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • The ESM is likely to hold a syndication after issuing an RFP earlier this week. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity.
  • Auctions for the week will kick off on Monday with Slovakia looking to sell 3/10/15/25-year SlovGBs. On offer will be E100mln of the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), E138.7mln of the 1.00% May-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017166), E100mln of the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) and E100mln of the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • On Tuesday, Germany will come to the market to sell E6bln of the new Jun-24 Schatz (ISIN: DE0001104883).
  • Also Tuesday, Finland will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 20-year 0.50% Apr-43 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000517677).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E1.5bln of the 30-year 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572).
  • Spain will come to the market on Thursday to sell E5-6bln of Bonos, Oblis and Green Oblis. On offer will be the 0% May-25 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012K38), the 0.80% Jul-27 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G26), the 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20) and the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli (ISIN: ES0000012J07).
  • France will then look to sell E10.0-11.5bln of the MT OATs (including the launch of the new long 5-year OAT): the 0% Feb-25 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007TY9), the 0% Feb-26 OAT (ISIN: FR0013508470) and the new 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: TBA).
  • France will return later Thursday to sell E1.0-1.5bln of IL OATs. On offer will be the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38), the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).