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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 11

The EU, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Ireland are all due to sell bonds this week. We estimate gross nominal issuance for the week at E25.5bln, little changed from last week's E25.4bln.

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Executive Summary:

  • The EU, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Ireland are all due to sell bonds this week. We estimate gross nominal issuance for the week at E25.5bln, little changed from last week's E25.4bln.
  • There will again be a single redemption in the week ahead, E13.9bln of the Italian 2.30% Oct-21 BTP which was originally launched as a 3-year BTP. Coupon payments of E1.2bln are due.
  • This leaves our estimate of net nominal flows for the week at E10.4bln, up from E3.9bln last week.
  • For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document.
Full document:

EZ111021.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

  • The EU is set to headline issuance this week with the launch of its inaugural green bond via syndication. We expect there to be huge demand and pencil in a transaction size of E10-15bln. We think that either a 15-year or 25-year maturity would be most likely and expect the syndication to take place on Tuesday.
  • The Netherlands will kick off the week's auctions on Tuesday morning with E1-2bln of the 2.75% Jan-47 DSL on offer.
  • Germany will also come to the market on Tuesday with E5bln of the 0% Sep-23 Schatz on offer.
  • Italy will come to the market on Wednesday with benchmark 3/7/30-year BTPs on offer: the 0% Aug-24 BTP, the 0.50% Jul-28 BTP and the 1.70% Sep-51 BTP.
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E1bln of the 30-year 0% Aug-52 Bund on offer.
  • Ireland will round off EGB issuance for the week on Thursday with details of the auction to be announced Monday morning.