MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 2

• Austria, Germany, Spain, France and the EFSF are due to issue in the week ahead.
• We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E25.3bln (excluding retail operations), down from E30.5bln this week.
• The week ahead sees a redemption of E16.0bln from an Italian formerly 5-year BTP with coupons of E0.7bln.
• This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated positive E8.5bln, down from E25.7bln this week.

EZ231002.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EFSF has sent an RFP to banks regarding a potential syndication. We pencil in a transaction size of E4.0bln (which would complete the EFSF’s funding for the new year) and note that this may be either a single-tranche or a dual-tranche deal. We don’t have a strong conviction on the tenors that will be on offer. We look for a transaction date of either Monday or Tuesday.
• Austria will kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday with on-the-run 10/30-year RAGBs for a combined E1.265bln: the 10-year 2.90% Feb-33 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A324S8) alongside the 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7).
• Germany will come to the market on Wednesday with E3bln of the 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006) on offer.
• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Olbi auction. On offer will be the new long 5-year 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51), the off-the-run 10-year 2.35% Jul-33 Obli (ISIN: ES00000128Q6) and the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli (ISIN: ES0000012J07).
• Finally on Thursday, France will hold a LT OAT auction with on-the-run 10/20/30-year OATs on offer and an auction size of up to E9.0-10.5bln: the 10-year 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7) alongside the 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2) and the 30-year 3.00% May-54 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FTH3) and another LT OAT.
• Italy will also look to issue a retail-only 5-year BTP Valore through the week (with a maturity of Oct-28). The bond will have a minimum guaranteed coupon of 4.10% for the first three years and 4.50% for the final two years. There will also be a bonus of 0.5% of the invested capital for investors who hold the bond for the entire 5-year period.
• We expect Portugal will announce its Q4 issuance plans during the week (Italy is likely to publish tonight