MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Sep 25

• The EU, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany are all due to hold auctions in the week ahead.
• We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E35.2bln, up from E23.8bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of USD3.5bln from an Italian formerly 30-year USD bond with coupons of E1.4bln.
• This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated positive E30.5bln.

For more see the PDF here:

EZ230925.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with an EU-bond auction for 10/30-year EU-bonds. On offer will be Up to E2.5bln of the 3.25% Jul-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D41) up to E1.5bln of the 3.00% Mar-53 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DY4)
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.5-2.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Jul-33 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001AM2).
• Also on Tuesday, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term/BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084). There will also be a combined E1.25-1.75bln of the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and the 2.55% Sep-41 BTPei (ISIN: IT0004545890) on offer.
• Finally on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 2.40% Oct-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25018).
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z015) on offer.
• On Thursday, Italy will look to hold a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. We look for a new 5-year BTP to be launched and pencil in a E4.0bln auction size with a potential maturity date of Dec-28. We also look for a reopening of the on-the-run 10-year 4.20% Mar-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005560948) alongside another similar maturity off-the-run BTP. We have less conviction on which CCTeu will be on offer this month. Details will be announced on Monday.
• We also pencil in a Spain syndication in the week ahead – noting the short duration skew of the most recent auction. We also note that Spain held syndications in September in both 2021 and 2022 that Spain hasn’t held a syndication in the same week as an auction at any point since at least 2019. The two recent September syndications were for 20-year maturities (green in 2021 and conventional in 2022), but neither have yet exceeded E10bln in size so we are unsure of the likely maturity on offer. There could be arguments for both a new 30-year Obli at a current coupon rate or even potentially a 40-year Obli.
• There are also a number of other countries who could potentially hold syndications in the week: Austria and Greece are the primary candidates in our view.