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Gilt Week Ahead: Passive QT to begin

  • Russia-Ukraine headlines will continue to drive UK markets this week, but we note SONIA futures saw less of a rally last week than Eurodollar or Euribor futures.
  • With the next MPC meeting scheduled for next week, at the time of writing markets are pricing around 29bp (i.e. fully pricing a 25bp hike with about a 18% probability of a 50bp hike.
  • This week will see the first passive reduction in the BoE’s balance sheet since QE began in 2009 with the redemption of the 4.00% Mar-22 gilt.
  • See the full document for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.
Full document:

GiltWeekAhead07032022a.pdf

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