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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Source: Bank of Canada
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The BoC is almost unanimously seen keeping its policy rate on hold at 5% on Wednesday for the second meeting running.
- Unusually heavy BoC speak since the Sep 6 decision has lent slightly hawkish but mixed data should see similar guidance.
- Instead, we focus on updated forecasts for when the Bank sees excess supply (July forecast early 2024) and when it sees inflation returning to the 2% target (July forecast mid-2025).
- There is only up to 1/3 odds of another hike by January whilst CORRA futures have seen cut expectations rise in the past few days off recent lows to a little under 50bp of cuts to end-2024. The long end of the GoC curve could be unusually sensitive after 10Y yields have increased almost 35bps since the last meeting.
- Initial market reaction to any surprises could be dulled by the current heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risk, but any surprises should help guide the trend further out.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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