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May CPI Coming Up, Expected To Ease

AUSTRALIA DATA

May CPI prints today and will be monitored closely. It is expected to ease to 6.1% from 6.8%. The April reading surprised to the upside due to base effects but excluding volatile items & holiday travel it moderated to 6.5%. The ABS also released a trimmed mean measure in the April data, which rose to 6.7%. These underlying measures will also be important for next week’s RBA decision.

  • Analysts’ estimates are in a broad range from 5.6% to 6.9% with most between 5.9% and 6.2%. NAB expects 5.9%, ANZ 6%, Westpac 6.1% and CBA 6.2%.
  • Rents are likely to remain high but lower goods, fuel and travel inflation should bring down the total.
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