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May CPI Preview - Housing & Imported Inflation Focus Again (1/2)

SWITZERLAND DATA

Swiss headline inflation (released Jun 4 at 0730BST/0830CET) is expected to have remain steady on a Y/Y basis in May after April's pronounced uptick, with consensus standing at +1.4% Y/Y and +0.3% M/M (vs +1.4% and 0.3% in April, respectively). Core CPI is expected to have accelerated further, however - consensus stands at +1.3% Y/Y (vs +1.2% Apr).

  • A headline print in line with consensus would bring in the Q2 average to date in line with the SNB forecast of 1.4% ahead of the SNB's policy decision on June 20th.
  • SNB President Jordan mentioned "small" upside risks to that forecast in a recent speech, though. Of course, these upside risks could also materialize after the SNB meeting, as part of the June inflation print.
  • Two categories appear to be in focus again in May: Imported inflation and housing inflation.
  • Imported inflation was the upside driver behind April's uptick amid CHF depreciation which started at the beginning of February, implying broadly a 2-month lag. As the Franc depreciated further in March, we see no obvious reason why this uptick in imported inflation should reverse in May.
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