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May Jobs Gain, Unemployment Rate Rise; Focus on CPI, FOMC Next Wed

US TSYS
  • Broadly weaker after the bell, Treasuries have actually traded sideways since the initial gap sell-off following the higher than expected jobs gain of 272k (+180k est), offset slightly by -15k 2-month revisions.
  • Amid the dip in 55+ labor market participation (0.2pp to 38.2%) which drove the overall unexpected dip in May: it was in turn driven by a drop in Male 55+ participation to 43.4% (43.7% prior), with female participation -0.1pp to 33.6%. That's the lowest 55+ male participation rate seen since 2005 - which will act as a constraint on labor supply, which may concern the FOMC.
  • Treasury futures actually extended session highs briefly, Sep'24 10Y (TYU4) tapping 110-21 before falling to 109-09.5 -- the widest gap move since April's CPI release. The 10Y contract traded in a 7 tic range since the data, trades -1-02 at 109-09.5 after the bell.
  • Cash yields are broadly higher: 2s +.1585 at 4.8826%, 10s +.1406 at 4.4276%, 30s +.1118 at 4.5470%, while curves are running flatter: 2s10s -1.381 at -45.498, 5s30s -4.450 at 8.974.
  • Late year rate cut projections have receded vs. late Thursday levels (*): June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -8% w/ cumulative at -2.3bp (-5.9bp) at 5.307%, Sep'24 cumulative -13.7bp (-21.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -20.3bp (-30.7bp), Dec'24 -37.4bp (-49.7bp).
  • Looking ahead, main focus is on CPI inflation data for May Wednesday morning, followed by the FOMC policy announcement at 1400ET that afternoon.
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