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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Head of the Metropolitan Police, Cressida Dick, has confirmed that her organisation is invesigating allegations of rule-breaking parties held at No.10 Downing Street and on Whitehall (the centre of UK gov't departments) during COVID lockdowns in 2020.
- Speaking to the London Assembly's Police and Crime Committee, Dick stated that, 'I can confirm the Met is investigating a number of events that took place in Downing Street and Whitehall in the last two years'.
- Comes as headlines in the UK remain dominated not by the looming risk of war in eastern Europe, but by the alleged holding of a birthday party for PM Boris Johnson in Downing St in June 2020. At the time of the alleged event, individuals were only allowed to meet one other in an indoor setting.
- Given the seemingly constant flow of negative headlines around COVID rule-breaking at Downing Street, the upcoming release of senior civil servant Sue Gray's report into the breaches, and a police investigation into the incidents, betting markets remain weighted towards PM Johnson being forced from office sooner rather than later.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Johnson Exit Date by Quarter, %
Source: Smarkets
- Bettors now give a 36.0% implied probability of Johnson leaving office in Q122, compared to a 27.0% implied probability of him remaining in office into 2023.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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