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MEXICO: Banorte Expecting 25BP Banxico Cut in August, Year-End Rate of 10.5%

MEXICO
  • According to Banorte, the latest Banxico minutes not only reinforced the more dovish tone of the statement, but expanded upon it. As such, the divergence they had noted in the previous minutes widened, with two groups clearly established.
  • More dovish members, which Banorte believe are Rodríguez, Borja and Mejía, gave a larger weight to the possible impact of an economic deceleration on prices.
  • On the contrary, hawkish participants –still Espinosa and Heath– argue that upside risks for inflation persist. Given this, they believe a more prudent and cautious approach should be maintained.
  • In this context, and also considering a better outlook for core inflation, Banorte now expect a 25bps cut on August 8 taking the rate to 10.75%. After this, Banrote expect pauses in September and November, with another 25bps reduction in December. As such, the rate would close the year at 10.50%.
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