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MEXICO: Banorte Revise 2024 Core CPI Forecast Down to 3.7%

MEXICO
  • Dynamics at both the core and non-core in the last fortnights have been very revealing. This, along with a reassessment of various drivers, has led Banorte to adjust 2024 forecasts. 
  • On core, goods have been better than expected –falling to 3.3% y/y– helped by changes in consumption patterns and MXN strength. Despite recent exchange rate adjustments, Banorte believe positive dynamics will continue, not expecting a substantial pass-through effect in coming months. 
  • Banorte now anticipate this category at 3.7% by year-end, with their previous forecast at 4.4%. However, their forecast for headline CPI has been adjusted higher by 10bps at 4.4%.
  • BAnorte point out that attention turns to Banxico’s minutes this week, key to define the most likely date for the next reference rate adjustment. On top of Omar Mejia’s dissent, Banorte will analyze comments from remaining Board members on the conditions that need to be met to continue easing. At the margin, Banorte believe this could materialize relatively soon, at least considering the known bias of the participants so far.
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