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MEXICO: CIBC Maintain Quarter-End USDMXN Forecast of 19.20

MEXICO
  • With USDMXN testing the 19.70 mark yesterday, CIBC believe the market appears to be finally reacting to intrinsic risks (i.e. constitutional reforms) on the currency front. However, there still appears to be some catching up to do on the country’s credit default swap (down 20bps since early August) as negative credit action risks increase. 
  • CIBC maintain their preference for buying USDMXN dips into early September. That said, they highlight that the abrupt move higher for the pair will likely keep Banxico on the sidelines on September 26, providing some support to the MXN as we approach the 20.00 mark. 
  • Moreover, CIBC suggest cleaner peso positioning should also support quick USDMXN reversals (as seen on Aug 23) once the market adjusts to the constant flow of headlines on the Judicial reform. Hence, CIBC maintain their quarter-end USDMXN forecast at 19.20.
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