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MEXICO: Economists Trim Year-End Interest Rate Forecast By 25bp To 10.0%

MEXICO
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  • According to the latest biweekly Citi survey of economists, Banxico’s policy rate is seen ending this year at 10.0%, down 25bp from the previous survey, before falling to 8.0% in 2025 (also 25bp lower).
  • The GDP estimate for this year was unchanged at 1.5%, while the 2025 GDP forecast dipped 10bp to 1.3%.
  • While the 2024 headline CPI forecast fell 5bp to 4.55%, the end 2025 forecast was unchanged at 3.80%. Core CPI forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were also broadly steady at 3.90% and 3.70%, respectively.
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  • According to the latest biweekly Citi survey of economists, Banxico’s policy rate is seen ending this year at 10.0%, down 25bp from the previous survey, before falling to 8.0% in 2025 (also 25bp lower).
  • The GDP estimate for this year was unchanged at 1.5%, while the 2025 GDP forecast dipped 10bp to 1.3%.
  • While the 2024 headline CPI forecast fell 5bp to 4.55%, the end 2025 forecast was unchanged at 3.80%. Core CPI forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were also broadly steady at 3.90% and 3.70%, respectively.