MNI: US Consumers See Lower Inflation, Better Jobs - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: Risks To Growth Evident, Await Dec Forecasts -Rehn

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, November 12

MNI BRIEF: Prolonged Tightening If Expectations Worsen - BCB

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY107.2 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1927 Tues; +1.32% Y/Y

MNI: US REDBOOK: NOV STORE SALES +4.8% V YR AGO MO

MNI: CANADIAN SEP BUILDING PERMITS +11.5% MOM

US NFIB OCT SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 93.7

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MEXICO: HSBC Expects 25bp Banxico Cut, In Unanimous Decision

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionNorth America
  • After two back-to-back rate cuts in August and September, HSBC expects a unanimous vote to cut the key rate by 25bp to 10.25% this week. The dissenting vote for keeping rates on hold in September argued services inflation as one of the main reasons to be cautious. Now that services inflation is easing more clearly, and with further core disinflationary progress, HSBC thinks a unanimous decision is likely.
  • However, HSBC expects the tone of the monetary policy statement to remain cautious due to other global and domestic factors. They expect the forward guidance to signal further cuts ahead, although they do not think the case for larger cuts has strengthened since the previous decision, which could dilute that discussion.
  • While some members could still consider larger cuts due to core disinflation progress, others could turn more cautious due to the increased uncertainty. HSBC sees the key rate at 10.00% and 8.00% by end-2024 and end-2025, respectively.
154 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • After two back-to-back rate cuts in August and September, HSBC expects a unanimous vote to cut the key rate by 25bp to 10.25% this week. The dissenting vote for keeping rates on hold in September argued services inflation as one of the main reasons to be cautious. Now that services inflation is easing more clearly, and with further core disinflationary progress, HSBC thinks a unanimous decision is likely.
  • However, HSBC expects the tone of the monetary policy statement to remain cautious due to other global and domestic factors. They expect the forward guidance to signal further cuts ahead, although they do not think the case for larger cuts has strengthened since the previous decision, which could dilute that discussion.
  • While some members could still consider larger cuts due to core disinflation progress, others could turn more cautious due to the increased uncertainty. HSBC sees the key rate at 10.00% and 8.00% by end-2024 and end-2025, respectively.