OIL
Pemex's crude production is expected to decline further in 2025, which may force Mexico to import crude for its refining and affect its credit rating, Platts said.
- Only the Trion and Zama projects could boost production, but not enough to offset declines.
- Zama's development is delayed until late 2024, with peak production expected by 2029-2030. Trion is expected to start producing in 2028.
- Pemex relies on a few projects, with 50% of its output from seven declining fields.
- Alma América Porres Luna, a former CNH commissioner predicts a loss of 100k b/d annually from 2025.
- Current budget render it unlikely that Pemex can revive production. Pemex's 2025 budget is 7.5% lower than 2024, although the government still expects Pemex to maintain its 1.8m b/d output target.
- Furthermore, private companies obtaining exploration contracts have eschewed investment, including Shell, Chevron, and BP.
- The new 340k b/d Olmeca refinery is not expected to be fully operational until late 2026, Platts estimates.
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