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EUROZONE DATA: Mfg Imports Extend Tepid Implications For Growth

EUROZONE DATA
  • Released earlier today, the Eurozone extra-EZ trade surplus was larger than expected in November, at E12.9bn (swda, cons E11.5bn) after an upward revised E7.0bn (initial E6.1bn) in October.
  • It saw the three-month rolling surplus increase a tenth to 0.9% GDP annualized whilst the twelve-month rolling surplus dipped a tenth to 1.1% GDP.
  • The latest monthly improvement came as exports bounced 3.2% M/M after -1.5% in Oct whilst imports increased 0.7% M/M after 1.2%.
  • Monthly growth in both exports and imports was driven by fuels and commodities.
  • Import details continue to have weak longer-term growth implications, with manufactured goods falling -1.7% M/M for the largest monthly decline since Jan 2024 and machinery & transport equipment within that category dipped -0.3% M/M after two heavier declines.
  • Trends in these manufacturing goods imports may have picked up compared to heavy declines seen through 1H24 although they are still tepid at 1.9% Y/Y and -1.0% Y/Y respectively – see charts. 
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  • Released earlier today, the Eurozone extra-EZ trade surplus was larger than expected in November, at E12.9bn (swda, cons E11.5bn) after an upward revised E7.0bn (initial E6.1bn) in October.
  • It saw the three-month rolling surplus increase a tenth to 0.9% GDP annualized whilst the twelve-month rolling surplus dipped a tenth to 1.1% GDP.
  • The latest monthly improvement came as exports bounced 3.2% M/M after -1.5% in Oct whilst imports increased 0.7% M/M after 1.2%.
  • Monthly growth in both exports and imports was driven by fuels and commodities.
  • Import details continue to have weak longer-term growth implications, with manufactured goods falling -1.7% M/M for the largest monthly decline since Jan 2024 and machinery & transport equipment within that category dipped -0.3% M/M after two heavier declines.
  • Trends in these manufacturing goods imports may have picked up compared to heavy declines seen through 1H24 although they are still tepid at 1.9% Y/Y and -1.0% Y/Y respectively – see charts. 
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