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MI Inflation Expectations Coming Up, Offsetting Drivers

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations measure for August is released today. It has been steady at 5.2% since May and has struggled to hold breaks below 5%. With factors in both directions August may be another month around 5.2%.

  • Petrol prices in the first week of August and last week of July fell but are up 8.1% on week ending July 9. The RBA left rates at 4.1% at its August 1 meeting stating that while inflation is still “too high” it is declining. The lower than expected Q2 CPI released on July 26 also received a fair amount of press. Both events give the sense that the worst of the cost-of-living pressures may be behind us.
  • But power prices increased on July 1 with that feeding through into bills over the following weeks. Also Westpac said this week that inflation continues to weigh on consumer confidence.
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