Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Dips

TTF front month is trading lower and has removed earlier gains driven by reports that Israel’s military has entered northern Gaza. Mild weather in the short term, paired with near-full storages and sufficient supplies from LNG imports and Norwegian gas pipelines flows are offering downside.

• TTF NOV 23 down -0.9% at 49.5€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.3% at 53.97€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.1% at 52.03€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday rose back up to 249.19k.
• Israel may face difficulties to meet its natural gas export obligations in full due to the closure of the 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field and the EMG pipeline, even if output from the Karish field will be increased according to Argus Media.
• Temperatures in NW Europe have been revised up for the next week, before forecasts have been revised down lower with temperatures falling below the seasonal norm.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up at 314.70mcm/d, compared with 302.4mcm/d yesterday. Troll and Oseberg output is still curbed.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99% full on 24 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%. Net injections have eased back this week and are now in line with the seasonal average. Net injections stood at 604.5GWh/d and 729GWh on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, in line with the average. European gas inventories are estimated to end the winter at 44% full, or 34bcm of gas, according to BNEF forecasts.
• Azerbaijan needs buyers to commit to at least ten years in order to increase natural gas exports to Europe, Socar VP Elshad Nasirov said, cited by Interfax.
• LNG flows to North West Europe were in line with the day before at 252.87mcm/d on 24 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
• Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal will open revised winter booking slots on Friday to ensure stable supplies after the shutdown of the Balticconnector pipeline, Gasgrid said.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024.
• North Asian physical spot LNG physical prices are around the $18/MMBtu mark, according to Bloomberg, as geopolitical tensions from the Middle East add a risk premium. This is despite a flurry of offers in the region for December deliveries.
• JKM Nov 23 down -2.1% at 17.64$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at 2.05$/mmbtu
• Pakistan is planning to buy two LNG cargoes in January to meet increasing demand in the winter, Pakistan’s Energy Minister Muhammed Ali said, cited by Bloomberg.
• Eni signed an agreement with Indonesia’s Merakes LNG to buy 0.8bcm/yr of LNG starting from January, the firm said in a statement.