Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Edges Down

Front month TTF has eased back amid forecasts for slightly milder weather later this month and high storage levels, weighed against curtailed Norwegian pipeline supplies and ongoing geopolitical risk.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1.2% at 27.84€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.2% at 28.31€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -2% at 32.09€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 321.1mcm/d with the Troll capacity reduction extended until at least Friday due to a compressor failure.
• Mild temperatures are expected across most of Europe as the chance of cooler weather back near to normal has been pushed back into the second half of February.
• European natural gas storage at 68.29% full on Feb 6 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 54.3% with net withdrawal rates remaining low this week.
• European gas storage is projected to finish the heating season above normal as withdrawal rates have held below normal since Jan 20. Mild weather across Europe in the first half of Feb is expected to keep demand muted.
• German natural gas consumption from households, small businesses and industry stood 6.7% below the 2018-2021 average in January, Bnetza data showed.
• European LNG sendout was up again to 346mcm/d on Feb 6 but still below the average of 379mcm/d seen during January.
• Japan’s LNG demand is forecast to decline by 8% year on year this summer – April to September - to 27.4mn tons as natural gas use for power generation is expected to decline due to higher coal and nuclear generation according to BNEF.
• The global LNG market is likely to remain tight during 2024 amid higher demand from China and despite stable supply according to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne.
• A big discount in LNG prices to oil and a “huge discount” to diesel are boosting demand in new regions according to CEO of shipowner Flex LNG, Oystein Kalleklev.
• LNG exports from the Arctic LNG-2 facility are delayed and are likely to start in March at the earliest as Novatek is awaiting a delivery of a tanker fleet for the project from South Korea according to Kommersant, citing sources.
• Third and final train of the Arctic LNG project in Russia has been put on hold, although the second train is likely to be installed, according to Reuters citing stakeholder Total.