Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls Back Below €45/MWh

TTF front month is easing back, nearing last week’s low of €44.50/MWh, with easing risks from the tensions in the Middle East and healthy near-term supplies paired with low demand due to mild weather.

• TTF DEC 23 down -2% at 44.9€/MWh
• JKM-TTF DEC 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at 2.5$/mmbtu
• TTF Q1 24 down -2% at 46.21€/MWh
• Goldman Sachs has lowered the TTF forecast for the balance of winter from 47€/MWh to 43€/MWh amid easing gas supply balances. Natural gas supply balances in Europe are better than expected in early winter due to higher renewable generation and household conservation efforts.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to cool by the end of the week with the risk of below normal into next week and at the start of December.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is holding at the high of the year at 353.0mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage was back up slightly to 99.0% full on Nov 19 after small injections on the day according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 88.3%.
• European LNG sendout fell back below levels from last year to 379mcm/d on Nov 19 according to Bloomberg from an average of around 430mcm/d last week.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days fell by 9.6% over the last week to 4.21mn tons as of 19 November, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Floating LNG storage off European costs is falling to around five vessels this week, down from 13 a week ago according to ICIS Analyst Alex Froley.
• Global LNG imports increased by 16% on the week to 9mn tons during 13-19 November, driven by higher imports into JKCT according to BNEF.
• Oman LNG signed a deal with BP to supply 1mtpa of LNG to BP for the duration of nine years according to the Oman News Agency.