Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Holds Onto Some Gains

TTF front month has eased back from an intra-day high of €36.10/MWh but continues to trade higher on the day, as increased shipping risks following another Houthis attack targeting the first energy shipment is providing upside.

• TTF JAN 24 up 1.7% at 35.29€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.3% at 35.5€/MWh
• Two missiles fired from Yemen’s Houthi rebel territory missed a tanker loaded with jet fuel near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday according o AP News reports citing US officials.
• ICE TTF positions of Investment Funds fell again last week from a net long to a small net short while positions for Commercial Undertaking, eg for energy companies resumed the increasing trend in place since late September.
• Above normal temperatures are still forecast for NW and central Europe throughout December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 90.43% full on Dec 11 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 80.1%.
• Withdrawals were down to just over 3,600GWh/d on Dec 11 from a high of nearly 6,750GWh/d on Dec 4 and compared to the 2018-2022 average for the period of 4,869GWh/d.
• EU ministers are expected to approve the extension of several emergency energy measures, including the gas price cap, by at least one year during a meeting next Tuesday, a senior diplomatic source told Montel. The European Federation of Energy Traders (EFET) advises against the extension.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today up to 353.1mcm/d and just below the high of the year of 359mcm/d seen in late November.
• European LNG sendout increased to 400mcm/d on Dec 11 after a drop at the weekend but remains below levels seen both last week and this time last year.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased by 16% on the week to 2.54mn tons as of 10 December, the highest level since May, according to data released by the trade ministry, cited by Bloomberg.
• China’s LNG terminals received a total of 1.76m mt from 26 cargoes in the week to Dec. 7, up 17.5% on the previous seven days, according to OilChem.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024 but to Europe in February and March 2024, according to BNEF.