Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rallies

TTF has rallied further above the high from last week driven by ongoing concern for disruption to European gas supplies transit through Ukraine.

• TTF SEP 24 up 5.3% at 42.55€/MWh
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are nominated up slightly on the day to 39.6mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to gradually cool this week but are expected to hold slightly above normal through the second week of the outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated in line with levels seen at the weekend at 329.5mcm/d today.
• European gas in store is up to 87.26% full on Aug 10 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 79.2% with injections rates at the low end of the previous five year range.
• TTF gas forward curve futures are hovering well-above their historic averages up near $10/mmbtu during 2025-29, with downside risk due to the upcoming robust LNG production wave, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
• Global LNG demand is expected to increase 14% in the next decade driven by new countries entering the market for the first time, according to Adnoc Gas’s CFO Peter Van Driel cited by Bloomberg.
• Natural gas production from Azerbaijan Shah Deniz 2 is scheduled to return on Aug 12, according to ICIS.