Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Retreats

Front month TTF has gradually eased lower through the session after rising to the highest level since 5 February yesterday with support from a dip in Norwegian and LNG supplies while a brief spell of cooler weather is expected early next week.

• TTF APR 24 down 2% at 28.24€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down 2.1% at 28.33€/MWh
• Weather in NW Europe is above normal this week but expected to cool over the coming weekend. Temperatures will fall to just below normal early next week before recovering above normal towards the end of March.
• European industrial gas demand is expecting a moderate rebound in 2024 rising by about 5.5bcm after the start of a recovery in the second half of 2023 according to Wood Mackenzie last week.
• European gas storage was up at 59.67% full on Mar. 17 according to GIE with net withdrawal rates falling as low as 361GWh/d on Mar. 16. The seasonal five year average is 42.13%.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down to 320.8mcm/d amid process problems at Aasta Hansteen with a capacity reduction of 7.2mcm/d estimated until Mar. 25.
• European LNG sendout has declined to 305mcm/d on Mar. 17 compared to an average of around 351mcm/d in the first half of March.
• Global weekly LNG imports declined by 5% to 7.5mn tons during 11-17 March, amid less volumes into South Korea and China, while NW European shipments also slipped according to BNEF.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days rose by 10% last week to 3.76mn tons as of 17 March, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• UTM Offshore has again delayed a final investment decision on Nigeria’s first floating LNG project to Q2 2024 according to LNG Prime citing chief executive, Julius Rone.
• China’s NOCs - PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC – are expected to lower prices for 2024-2025 pipeline gas contracts due to higher domestic production and to compete with falling spot LNG imports, Platts said.
• Average LNG shipments from Nigeria’s Bonny Island facility so far in March are around a third below January-February levels, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed.