Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Retreats on Norwegian Supply, Weather

TTF front month extends the pullback from a peak of 45€/MWh on 25 Sep driven by a lack of cold weather in the forecast combining with the return of Norwegian supplies. The front month remains above levels seen earlier in the month given potential supply risks from US LNG maintenance.

• TTF OCT 23 down -2.9% at 39.15€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.2% at 46.02€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.2% at 47.2€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up slightly to 237.2mcm/d with further capacity coming back online this week. Outages are expected to fall from 121mcm/d today to 63mcm/d by the weekend according to Gassco.
• The submission deadline for European companies to join the third joint gas purchasing tender closes today.
• The latest two week weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures for the next week in NW Europe and has moved slightly warmer back just above normal into week two.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.08% full on 25 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five-year average of 86.55%.
• Norwegian hydropower reserves last week rose sharply by 3.9 percentage points to 82.8% of capacity as of the end of last week, widening the surplus to the five-year average to the highest level so far this year, NVE data show.
• LNG sendout to Europe is holding around 250mcm/d this week and below an average of 292mcm/d so far in September and around 370mcm/d this time last year.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell by 1.89% on the week to 1.56mn tons as of 24 September.