Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises on Weather

TTF front month is trading higher as weather forecasts for northwest Europe have been slightly revised down. The TTF 1Q24 premium over the front month has narrowed today following increased de-escalation efforts in the Middle East, limiting potential supply risks.

• TTF NOV 23 up 2.3% at 50.38€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.3% at 54.92€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0% at 52.9€/MWh
• TTF Q124-NOV 23 down -0.9€/MWh at 4.54€/MWh
• Gas Positioning - ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday rose back up to 226.67k.
• ICE TTF positions of investment firms fell to the largest net short since the first half of November 2022, while net long position for investment funds increased to the highest since early November.
• The latest weather forecast has been slightly revised down for end-Oct/early-Nov with temperatures expected to fall below the average on 4 Nov before rising again.
• The latest investigations by the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation showed that the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline was likely the result of an errant anchor dropped from the Hong Kong registered shipping vessel, the Newnew Polar bear.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down to 302.4mcm/d with supplies from Troll curbed for two days and also from Oseberg due to process problems with an uncertain duration.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.63% full on 23 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%
• LNG flows to North West Europe were at 252.95mcm/d on 23 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM Nov 23 up 3.1% at 17.94$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.2$/mmbtu at 2.33$/mmbtu
• TotalEnergies is expected to make a final investment decision on a new LNG terminal at Mozambique's Matola port by September next year.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators rose another week by 3.72% to 2.23mn tons as of 22 October, the highest level since June, trade ministry data showed.
• Egyptian LNG exports are below the seasonal average and showing signs to be clearly impacted by the conflict in Israel, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• The LNG vessel Minerva Limnos has diverted to the US after it was initially due to arrive in Egypt according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, just after last week a vessel diverted from Egypt to Algeria.