Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides on Bearish Fundamentals

TTF front month has extended losses throughout the morning to the lowest level since 9 October amid healthy supplies into Europe, high storage levels and muted demand.

• TTF DEC 23 down -3.9% at 42.29€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.7% at 43.4€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to remain slightly below normal through the first week of December but the current operational forecast run suggests a return to near normal around Dec 9.
• European natural gas demand stood 350mcm/d below the 2016-2020 average in the first three weeks of November according to BNEF.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today unchanged at 346mcm/d amid corrective maintenance at Aasta Hansteen today but with uncertain duration. Aasta Hansteen field gas cuts have been widened to 18mcm/d.
• European natural gas storage is down to 97.43% full on Nov 26 according to GIE data seasonal five year average is 86.2% with near normal withdrawal rates.
• Eni and Open Energy Platform AG signed an agreement to guarantee natural gas flows to Switzerland and Italy in the event of significant flow interruptions from Germany, Eni said in a statement, cited by Bloomberg.
• European LNG sendout was back up to 432mcm/d on Nov 26 after a dip below 350mcm/d late last week compared to an average of 404mcm/d so far in November.
• Global weekly LNG imports fell by 14% on the week to 7.6mn tons during 20-26 November, driven by a decline in shipments to North Asia and NW Europe according to BNEF.
• A loaded LNG tanker is stuck at the 9mtpa Australia Pacific LNG terminal (APLNG) in Queensland due to lost power and is expected to disrupt some shipments, as only one LNG vessel is able to dock at the facility at a time, Origin Energy said, co-owner of the terminal with ConocoPhillips.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 0.7% over the last week to 4.25mn tons as of 26 November, according to Bloomberg estimates.