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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls

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Crude markets have extended their decline today following a sharp fall on Monday after reports that OPEC+ will go ahead with its planned output hike in April, counter to market expectations. The impact of US tariffs and retaliatory measures on global demand is also weighing on prices. 

  • WTI APR 25 down 1.3% at 67.48$/bbl
  • Brent MAY 25 down 1.6% at 70.48$/bbl
  • An additional 10% US tariff was imposed on China today with retaliatory measures against US agriculture. The 25% tariff will go on imports from Mexico and Canada today. The US will impose 10% on Canadian energy imports, including oil.
  • Canada has responded with 25% tariffs on around C$30bn of US goods initially followed by C$125bn in three weeks. Ontario is threatening to stop energy and critical mineral shipments to the US.
  • OPEC signalled it will proceed with its planned output hike of 138k b/d in April amid healthy market fundamentals and positive market outlook. The gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, OPEC added.
  • Any progress towards peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to sanctions relief for Russia. President Donald Trump paused all U.S. military aid to Ukraine following the clash with President Zelenskiy last week.
  • Goldman Sachs see downside risks to oil price forecasts from higher than expected OPEC+ supply and softer demand while Citi see Brent falling to $60 - 65/bbl over 6-12 months.
  • China’s oil demand as not yet peaked, with strong petrochemicals consumption outweighing declines in gasoline and diesel, according to Sinopec’s chairman, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan plans to increase oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to 6.7 million metric tons in March – up from 5.4mn tons in February the Energy Ministry said to Reuters.
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Crude markets have extended their decline today following a sharp fall on Monday after reports that OPEC+ will go ahead with its planned output hike in April, counter to market expectations. The impact of US tariffs and retaliatory measures on global demand is also weighing on prices. 

  • WTI APR 25 down 1.3% at 67.48$/bbl
  • Brent MAY 25 down 1.6% at 70.48$/bbl
  • An additional 10% US tariff was imposed on China today with retaliatory measures against US agriculture. The 25% tariff will go on imports from Mexico and Canada today. The US will impose 10% on Canadian energy imports, including oil.
  • Canada has responded with 25% tariffs on around C$30bn of US goods initially followed by C$125bn in three weeks. Ontario is threatening to stop energy and critical mineral shipments to the US.
  • OPEC signalled it will proceed with its planned output hike of 138k b/d in April amid healthy market fundamentals and positive market outlook. The gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, OPEC added.
  • Any progress towards peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to sanctions relief for Russia. President Donald Trump paused all U.S. military aid to Ukraine following the clash with President Zelenskiy last week.
  • Goldman Sachs see downside risks to oil price forecasts from higher than expected OPEC+ supply and softer demand while Citi see Brent falling to $60 - 65/bbl over 6-12 months.
  • China’s oil demand as not yet peaked, with strong petrochemicals consumption outweighing declines in gasoline and diesel, according to Sinopec’s chairman, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan plans to increase oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to 6.7 million metric tons in March – up from 5.4mn tons in February the Energy Ministry said to Reuters.