Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Holds Onto Gains

Crude markets are holding comfortably above $90/bbl with Middle East uncertainty and tighter supply expectations. Signs of a softer landing, particularly in the US and an improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity last week are aiding global demand expectations.

• Brent JUN 24 up 0.2% at 90.52$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 up 0.1% at 86.49$/bbl
• The near term crude options continue to hold a call skew which has been supported by strong call option traded volumes in recent days.
• The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook is due for release at 10:00ET (17:00BST) today. The API oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET.
• Mexico’s Pemex is planning to cut crude exports to customers in the US, Europe and Asia by at least 330kbpd in May, sources told Reuters.
• China’s new 400,000 bpd mega refinery in Yulong has received government approval to import crude oil directly in 2024 according to Bloomberg sources.
• Growth in US oil production is unlikely until the second half of the year according to Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.
• Morgan Stanley has lifted its crude price forecast for this year on the back of geopolitical risks, the bank said in a note, cited by Bloomberg.
• The latest rally in global crude prices is due to improved demand figures, Frederic Lasserre, Gunvor’ global head of research and analysis, said at the FT Commodities Global Summit.
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted oil loading on April 9 due scheduled maintenance according to the operator.
• Azerbaijan’s crude oil production stood at 481kbpd in March, down from 476kbpd in February and 70kbpd below its pledged OPEC+ target, the Energy Ministry said, cited by Interfax.
• It is unlikely that the 340k b/d Olmeca refinery will commence operations in April as promised by Mexico’s president AMLO, as the refinery has not yet met several deadlines established by both Pemex and the government, Argus said.
• Independent refineries in China increased their feedstock imports by 13.3% m/m in March to a seven-month high of 17.4 million mt (127.54 million barrels) according to Platts figures.
• Exxon Mobil’s 252kbpd Joliet refinery shut down the 275kbpd CDU and 50kbpd cat reformer on 6 April, according to WoodMac, as the refinery is undergoing seasonal maintenance as of early April.
• Cracks softened yesterday amid signs of falling US gasoline demand last week, while uncertainty surrounds Russia output due to refinery outages and is China expected to issue its second batch of refined oil export quotas totalling 18m mt.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 29.26$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 28.27$/bbl